From the Editors—Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis

From the Editors - Probability Scoring Rules, Ambiguity, Multiattribute Terrorist Utility, and Sensitivity Analysis

T issue’s “From the Editors” column is coauthored with all the associate editors, to emphasize their major role in the leadership of the journal. We first review this year’s operations and thank our editorial board and referees. Our first article, by David J. Johnstone, Victor Richmond R. Jose, and Robert L. Winkler, presents “Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities,” which take into account t...

Target-Hardening Decisions Based on Uncertain Multiattribute Terrorist Utility

W e present a game-theoretic model to explore how uncertainty about terrorist preferences can affect optimal resource allocations for infrastructure protection. We consider a dynamic game with incomplete information , in which the defender chooses how to allocate her defensive resources, and then an attacker chooses which target to attack according to a multiattribute utility function. Our mode...

Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization

Information measures arise in many disciplines, including forecasting (where scoring rules are used to provide incentives for probability estimation), signal processing (where information gain is measured in physical units of relative entropy), decision analysis (where new information can lead to improved decisions), and finance (where investors optimize portfolios based on their private inform...

Constructing Multiattribute Utility Functions for Decision Analysis

A fundamental step in decision analysis is the accurate representation of the decision maker’s preferences. When the decision situation is deterministic, each alternative leads to a single prospect (consequence). A prospect may be characterized by one or more attributes, such as health state and wealth. A value function that ranks the prospects is sufficient to rank order the decision alternati...

Multiattribute One-Switch Utility